Can one country switch off a metal? China's rare-earth curbs, paused not removed

Key points

• Rare earths are a group of 17 metals; despite the name, many are relatively abundant (USGS). The hard part is separating them and making magnets for EV motors, wind turbines, data centres, robots and defence.
• In 2024 China mined about 60% of the world's magnet rare earths but refined 91% and made 94% of sintered permanent magnets (IEA).
• After China began requiring licences for seven medium and heavy rare earths in April 2025, its magnet exports fell about 74% year on year in May 2025 (China customs data). Ford idled its Chicago Explorer plant for a week that May over a rare-earth shortage; Ford said it brought forward planned downtime.
• The IEA says rare earths are about 40% of a magnet's price but less than 1% of a car's value; tripling their price would add about 0.1% to a car's cost. Our reading: the risk is the missing part, not the price.
• Other suppliers are growing slowly: Lynas produced heavy rare earths in Malaysia in May 2025, the US Defense Department set a 10-year $110/kg price floor for MP Materials' NdPr in July 2025, and the IEA says China's refining share fell from over 90% in 2023 to about 85% in 2025. What happens after 10 January 2027 has not been announced.